The market gurus of the 1990’s were absolutely right about stock prices. In the long run they always go up. But it’s also true, as the noted economist John Maynard Keynes once noted, that in the long run we’re all dead.
What do these two truisms, taken together, tell us about the conundrum facing investors in today’s shell-shocked markets? For an answer, I turned to a poem that explains why taking a long-term view may not always be a good idea—Andrew Marvell’s "To His Coy Mistress." This poem’s best-known lines are:
Had we but world enough and time,
This coyness Lady, were no crime....
I adopt this sentiment (along with Marvell’s verse structure and satirical tone) in my own "Time And Gain."
Time And Gain
Were there no link ‘tween gain and time
Investing games would be sublime.
Our current losses would mean naught,
They’d never be with worry fraught.
With time all crises are resolved,
Mistaken gurus all absolved;
‘Bout this year’s woes we’d only laugh,
No need to fear a near-term gaff.
We’d shrug off news some books were cooked,
Bad numbers changed or overlooked.
From fraud like this we’d never suffer,
The passing years would be our buffer.
Alas, though Father Time all heals,
It’s cash that pays for three square meals.
We can’t put needs like these on ice
Until the market gods make nice.
School bills, the mortgage, charge card debt,
Are monthly tabs that must be met;
The kids, the car, a change of clothes,
Can’t wait out current market woes.
We’re told to take a long-term view,
And mostly that advice rings true.
But comes the time your needs are now,
You might rethink that sacred cow.
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