In recent years, professional market watchers have been very good at ignoring the obvious. When viewing the Nasdaq bubble, for example, they invariable said: "What bubble? I don’t see overvaluations. I see a new economy coming into being."
It’s therefore not surprising that these same market mavens are today not in the least worried about inflation. "What inflation," they say. "I see no signs of inflation. Except for temporary increases in the cost of energy, inflation is totally under control."
Well, no. In 1998, the consumer price index (CPI), the most broadly based inflation measure, rose just 1.7 percent. But in 1999 it rose 2.7 percent, in 2000 it rose 3.6 percent, and in the first two months of this year it’s up 5.4 percent. Energy price increases aren’t temporary and aren’t going away. In fact, with more electricity shortages looming and the summer driving season almost upon us, they’ll likely get worse. Housing costs (40 percent of the CPI) are soaring, as are medical expenses. And even as layoffs proliferate, compensation packages get bigger. No signs of inflation indeed.
Clearly, it’s time for financial poets to step up and say the obvious—in rhyme. The two poems that follow do so in the styles of Carl Sandburg and Arthur Hugh Clough. Sandburg, best known as a big shoulders Chicago kind of guy, also did clever verse observations on human foibles such as his ‘Why Did the Children Put Beans in Their Ears?’ Which they did, of course, because that’s what kids always do when told not to do it. My parody version is ‘Why Do Investors Ignore Inflation.’ Which they do now, of course, because...well, you get the idea.
The other poem here is taken from my upcoming book, Songs of Wall Street (Running Press, available late April 2001). It’s based on Clough’s great poem, ‘Say Not The Struggle.’ My own version, ‘Say Not Your Gold Fund,’ is a tribute to the only real long-term protection against inflation—gold—a despised asset in recent years whose time may be coming around again sooner than you think.
Why Do Investors Ignore Inflation
Why do investors
ignore inflation
when the one thing investors
should never do
Is ignore inflation?
Why do investors
sluff off the CPI
when the one thing investors
should never do
is sluff off rising CPIs?
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Say Not Your Gold Fund
Say not your gold fund naught a’groweth,
It lies there like a lump of lead,
Nor does it dividends off throweth,
Indeed, it looketh to be dead.
If shares are down, demand may be quick’ning;
It may be, in markets still conceal’d,
Gold buyers bounce from losses sick’ning,
And, hid from you, renew their zeal.
For while inflation, wildly racing,
Now seems a distant set of spikes,
Big banks, liquidity embracing
Seem headed down this same old pike.
So not by this day’s price quote only ,
When planning trades, and setting goals;
The current state of gold is lowly,
But meltdowns come, and up she goes!
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